TrimTabs Investment Research

The Leading Independent Institutional Research Firm for Equity Market Liquidity

 
 
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TrimTabs Investing:
Using Liquidity Theory
to Beat the Stock Market

Charles Biderman,
with David Santschi

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Hardcover, 2005
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Research Products

TrimTabs research publications focus on Liquidity, Macro, and Fund Flow Research

I.

Liquidity Research
  1.

TrimTabs Weekly Liquidity Review

Every Sunday evening, Charles Biderman provides commentary on the previous week’s major liquidity events and updates his forecast of the short-term direction of the stock market. The research includes our latest measure of L1, which estimates the effect of corporate actions on the net change in equity stock outstanding.

Components of L1 include:

  • Announced and Completed Cash takeovers

  • Announced Stock Buybacks

  • New Equity Offerings

The weekly review also includes summary data of our Fund Flow Research which surveys daily flows into mutual fund and ETF’s as well as highlights from our Macro Research which focuses on real time (daily) indicators of income and employment.

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2.


TrimTabs Overnight Liquidity Update

Charles Biderman analyses the previous day’s liquidity numbers, and how current liquidity events are likely to affect the market. The research is published Monday through Thursday overnight. 

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3. TrimTabs Daily Liquidity Report

Published an hour before the close U.S. Equity markets, we report the previous day’s L1 (equity liquidity), mutual fund, and ETF flows.  We also list mutual funds flow by investment objective and categories. 

TrimTabs is the only funds flow research firm that publishes daily ETF and mutual fund flows.  We break down funds flow in and out of 18 US equity fund sectors, 8 global fund sectors and 22 bond fund sectors.  

This report also includes our estimates of equity and bond funds flow for the entire Investment Company Institute (ICI) universe of long term mutual funds, and by ICI investment objectives i.e. aggressive growth, growth and growth & income. 

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4. TrimTabs Daily Exchange Traded Funds Report

We publish the net issuance and redemptions of all 223 ETFs by category and by individual ETF, reporting daily and the last 7, 14, and 30 day flows, highlighting ETF’s which have had significant flow activity.  Clients have access to historic data series back to 2000.  The daily tracking of ETF flow is what makes our ETF report unique.

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5.

Our latest product,the Weekly Global Liquidity Review tracks liquidity on the London Stock Exchange, Euronext and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The TrimTabs Weekly Global Liquidity Review applies our L1 methodology to track liquidity trends on the London Stock Exchange, the Euronext the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. 

The Global Liquidity Review provides our readers with exposure to a combined market cap of $8.7 trillion (vs $15 trillion for the NYSE). Driven by numerous listings of Russian, Indian and Middle-Eastern companies, the LSE has become the world’s top destination for IPOs in 2006, while Hong Kong came second through the listing of more than $44 billion of mainland-China equities this past year. The Euronext offers a window on four national stock markets (France, Belgium, Netherlands and Portugal) and is the largest stock market of continental Europe.   

On these three markets, we believe this actual liquidity data will be a particularly useful macro-timing tool because it is more timely and comprehensive than the liquidity data available for the U.S. stock market as it is not subject to SEC reporting delays.  In addition, our global liquidity database can generate sector-specific or stock-specific reports on each L1 variable, allowing us to provide clients with daily liquidity analysis of their portfolios.

The Weekly Global Liquidity Review will be distributed to TrimTabs clients each Monday. To provide feedback on this product or to receive assistance with specific requests, please contact Vincent Deluard, Global Equity Analyst, at +1 (415) 331-4400 or Vincent.Deluard@TrimTabs.com.

 

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  6. TrimTabs Sector Liquidity Report

A bi-weekly report on liquidity trends in industry groups and sectors in the Russell 1000 and S&P 500. We aggregate actual and announced buybacks, new offerings, and announced mergers as well as dividends and shares outstanding on an industry and sector basis. Our proprietary Sector Liquidity database allows us to apply our key line liquidity measure L1 - the net change in trading float - to industry groups, sectors and individual stocks. Clients subscribing to the underlying database can apply portfolio-specified sectors or ticker groupings to see how their portfolio compares to the industries or sectors they invest in.

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II      Macro Research
1. TrimTabs Weekly Macro Analysis

TrimTabs proprietary web-spidering technique collects data many times a day from several unique sources in order to provide a real-time or near-time snapshot of economic activity in the United States with a particular focus on the financial health of the U.S. Consumer. Every Tuesday, Madeline Schnapp synthesizes this data and provides conclusions on the direction of the U.S. economy. Our focus on high frequency daily data gives you as much as six weeks advance notice on the direction of the U.S. economy when compared to data from traditional government indicators. This report consolidates a number of high frequency economic indicators:
  • U.S. Treasury Withheld Income and Employment Taxes – a daily indicator of after-tax consumer income.
  • TrimTabs Savings and Investment Flow which directly measures consumer investment flows into deposits and mutual funds.
  • TrimTabs On-line Job-Posting Index
  • Sentiment – AAII survey of Bullish/Bearish Sentiment
  • Consumer Debt – Revolving Home Equity Loans, Mortgage Applications Composite Index, Mortgage Refinance Index, Purchase Applications Index
  • Commercial Debt – Commercial & Industrial as well as Non-Financial Commercial Paper.

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2. TrimTabs Monthly Employment E-Mail News Flash

Published monthly on the morning of the release of the monthly U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report, this email news flash provides commentary on the validity of the government employment data.  The BLS employment data is frequently inaccurate and subject to large revisions as high as 150% of the original estimate.    Our special focus helps you interpret the often confusing but significant effects of revisions and seasonal adjustments that habitually underestimate or overestimate actual employment levels.  By understanding the true nature of the U.S. employment situation, knowledgeable market traders have a significant edge over those traders that believe the often inaccurate and untimely government data releases.

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TrimTabs Research Data Offering

Indicator Sector Code Source Periodicity Commencing Notes TrimTabs Reports
             
U.S. Equity Float (Supply) - L1 and Components
Individual Stocks, Industry Sectors, and Markets              
Stock Expansion              
Initial Public Offerings NOIPO TrimTabs  Daily 2/13/1998  
Secondary Equity Offerings NOSEC TrimTabs  Daily 2/13/1998  
Convertible Offerings NOCVNT TrimTabs  Daily 2/13/1998 Weekly Liquidity
Insider selling TrimTabs  Daily 2/13/1998
Supply Contraction             Overnight Liquidity Update
Announced Buybacks AB TrimTabs  Daily 4/20/1998
Announced M&A - Cash Consideration AM TrimTabs  Daily 2/13/1998  Daily Liquidy Report
Announced M&A - Stock Consideration AS TrimTabs  Daily 2/13/1998
Completed M&A CMA TrimTabs  Daily 2/13/1998
             
             
U.S. Equity Float - Actual Quarterly Liquidity
Individual Stocks, Industry Sectors, and Markets              
             
Outstanding Shares OS SEC 10Q Quarterly Q1 2001
Change in Outstanding Shares SS SEC 10Q Quarterly Q1 2001
Actual Buybacks BB SEC 10Q Quarterly Q1 2001
Stock Issued in Acquisitions ST SEC 10Q Quarterly Q1 2001 AQL Sector
Dividends DV SEC 10Q Quarterly Q1 2001
Actual Float Shrink DVSS SEC 10Q Quarterly Q1 2001
Total Shareholder Returns TSR Trimtabs Quarterly Q1 2001
Stock Ticker Profile (Sector, Industry, Quarter End) Trimtabs Quarterly Q1 2001
             
U.S. Mutual Fund Flows:
             
Equity Fund Flows TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998  Daily Mutual Funds Flow
U.S. Equity Flows TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998
International Equity Fund Flows TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998
Bond/Hybrid Flows TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998
        TT Sample/
TrimTabs Estimate of Flows by ICI Category:         # ICI Funds
Aggressive Growth TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998 175 / 1409
Growth TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998 175 / 1409
Growth & Income TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998 159 / 839
International TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998 113 / 929
           
Morningstar Segmentation:        
Large/Mid/Small - Growth/Blend/Value TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998
Specialty Industry TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998
Global Regions TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998
Bond / Muni Fund Sectors TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998
           
TrimTabs Sector Segmentation:        
Industries TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998
Regions TrimTabs  Daily 2/2/1998
           
U.S. Mutual Fund Flows:
          No of ETf's  
Domestic Equity ETF's by Style & Sector TrimTabs  Daily 128  Daily ETF Fund Flows
International Equity ETF's by Region TrimTabs  Daily 42
Bond ETF's TrimTabs  Daily 6
Gold ETF's TrimTabs  Daily 2

 

 

 

 

 

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