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Guide to Liquidity Theory
The capitalization of the market for an asset - whether stocks,
bonds, real estate, or commodities - is primarily a function of
the supply of an asset and the demand for an asset. The fundamental
value of an asset has far less impact. Our basic premise is that
price is a function of liquidity having nothing to do with value.
At TrimTabs, we measure liquidity trends in the U.S. stock market
and use them to predict the market's direction
Liquidity is the relationship between the issuance and redemption
of shares available for trading (float) and the amount of cash available
for stock investment (flow). By tracking three liquidity trim tabs
- one of which measures float and two of which measure flow - we
can gauge where the stock market is likely to turn in the future:
L1 - Net Change in the Trading Float of
Shares
The most important liquidity trim tab is the net change in the trading
float of shares (L1), which measures whether corporate America is
a net buyer or a net seller of stock. If L1 is positive, it means
the trading float of shares is increasing and corporate America
is a net seller of stock. If L1 is negative, it means the trading
float of shares is shrinking and corporate America is a net buyer
of stock.
L2 - U.S. Equity Fund Flows
The second liquidity trim tab is U.S. equity fund flows (L2), which
measures the amount of cash investors are investing or withdrawing
from ETF and mutual fund investing.
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