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TrimTabs Investment Research Launches Weekly Asia Flow Report Tracking Supply of Investment Cash.
Foreigners Still Purchasing Asian Equities, While In-Country Investors Mostly Sellers.


Sausalito, CA - December 19, 2009 - TrimTabs is pleased to introduce the Weekly Asia Flow Report, which measures money flows into Japanese, Korean, mainland China and Indian stocks by both Asian and non-Asian investors.

"This new report offers investors a range of Asian equity flow data that is not available in one place anywhere else." said Vincent Deluard, Global Equity Strategist at TrimTabs. "It is particularly important to measure demand for stocks in emerging markets because changes in sentiment have historically caused large price swings."

The Weekly Asia Flow Report tracks 17 sentiment and flow variables, ranging from trading account openings in China to margin debt levels in Japan and short interest on American Depositary Receipts tracking Asian shares. Several of these variables, such as the flows of Asia-oriented mutual funds and flows into emerging markets hedge funds, are proprietary datasets.

"Our unique data and analysis will help investors identify market tops, when flows tend to be unusually strong, and market bottoms, when sentiment tends to be despondent," said Deluard.

Recent flow and sentiment data suggests Dubai's latest debt problems have had almost no effect on flows into Asian equities from outside Asia. Foreigners added to their stock positions in India, Japan, and Korea in the past two weeks. Also, flows into Asia-oriented mutual funds, ETFs, and hedge funds remained modestly positive.

While foreigners are extremely bullish on Asian equities, almost all in-country investors have been taking profits for the past three months. The only exception is in China, where the booming IPO market is encouraging wild speculation by retail investors.

To learn more about the Weekly Asia Flow Report or to discuss the latest trends in Asia-oriented flows, please contact Vincent Deluard at vincent.delurd@trimtabs.com or +1 415-331-4400.


# # #


TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.

Contact Information:

Alison Simard
Media Relations
Stern & Company
+1 212-888-0044
arsimard@sternco.com

Charles Biderman
TrimTabs Investment Research
+1 707-527-1501
charles.biderman@trimtabs.com


 


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:


TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Lost 472,000 Jobs in June, 24% More Than 380,000 in May
Wages & Salaries Dropped 5.8% Y-o-Y in June, Steeper Than May's 4.8% Y-o-Y Decline


Sausalito, CA - July 1, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that 472,000 jobs were lost in June, 24% more than the 380,000 jobs shed in May. TrimTabs also reports that wages and salaries are dropping much more rapidly than the Bureau of Economic Analysis is indicating.

"June's job losses are likely to push the unemployment rate uncomfortably close to 10%," said Charles Biderman, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs. "Job losses slowed temporarily in May as consumers benefitted from income tax refunds, President Obama's tax credit, low interest rates, and low energy costs. With the exception of the tax credit, all of those factors have disappeared or reversed."
TrimTabs' employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. Historically, TrimTabs' employment estimates have been more accurate than those of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As job losses are worsening, declines in wages and salaries are accelerating. According to TrimTabs' tax data, wages and salaries fell 5.8% year-over-year in June, even steeper than the decline of 4.8% year-over-year in May.

"Last week's report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that wages and salaries fell just 1.1% year-over-year in May is ridiculous," said Biderman. "The BEA is using unemployment insurance reports from the fourth quarter to estimate wage and salary growth five months later."

TrimTabs explained that by overestimating wages and salaries, the BEA is grossly overstating the savings rate. While the BEA reported that the savings rate jumped to a 15-year high of 6.9% in May, TrimTabs' real-time data shows the savings rate was only 2.8%. Excluding one-time factors, the savings rate was a miniscule 0.9%, added Biderman.

"We asked BEA economists how they reconcile the huge declines in real-time tax deposits with their report of a modest decline in wages and salaries, and they could not answer our question," said Biderman. "The BEA is ignoring real-time data that shows the economy is in much worse shape than it is reporting."


# # #


TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.

Contact Information:

Alison Simard
Media Relations
Stern & Company
+1 212-888-0044
arsimard@sternco.com

Charles Biderman
TrimTabs Investment Research
+1 707-527-1501
charles.biderman@trimtabs.com



 


TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Lost 579,000 Jobs in May
Large Job Losses Weed Whacking Bernanke's `Green Shoots'


Sausalito, CA - June 3, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy lost 579,000 jobs in May, bringing total job losses so far this year to a "worrisome" 3.3 million. What's more, TrimTabs expects job losses to average more than 500,000 to 600,000 in the next few months, as employers shed jobs in response to continued poor business conditions.

"These huge job losses seem to be weed whacking the green shoots of an economic revival that Fed Chairman Bernanke has been saying are already evident." said TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman. "It would be great if that were the case, but we're just not seeing it in the data."

TrimTabs' jobs estimates are based upon analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. Historically, TrimTabs' payroll job estimates have been more accurate than the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) survey results. The BLS is set to release May payroll numbers on Friday, June 5.

"The BLS consistently underestimates job losses during a recession, creating a false sense of confidence that conditions are improving when, in fact, economic conditions are getting worse," Biderman said.

In fact, said Biderman, "Withheld taxes of all U.S. workers fell 4.9% year-over-year in May, down from 4.7% year-over-year in April. Weekly unemployment claims have been above 600,000 for four consecutive months and continuing claims hit a record 6.8 million, the highest level on record."
TrimTabs estimates that the recession, which officially began in December 2007, has cost the economy 5.8 million jobs.

"What is most worrisome is that job losses are likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future," Biderman said. "Until the employment market nears some sort of bottom, the U.S. economy is unlikely to recover."


# # #


TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.

Contact Information:

Alison Simard
Media Relations
Stern & Company
+1 323-650-7117
arsimard@sternco.com

Charles Biderman
TrimTabs Investment Research
+1 707-527-1501
charles.biderman@trimtabs.com


 


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE


BEA Will Likely Revise Q1 2009 Wages and Salaries Downward by Three-to-Four
Percentage Points on Monday
Worse Still, So Far in the Month of May, Net Take-Home Pay Is Plummeting A Staggering 16.3% Percentage Points Y-o-Y

Sausalito, CA - May 29, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research today reports that on Monday, June 1, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will likely revise its estimates of wages and salaries and the personal savings rate substantially downward for the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 when it incorporates actual wage and salary data from the state-collected Q4 2008 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). The QCEW data will show that wages and salaries were much lower in Q4 2008 and Q1 2009 than the preliminary BEA estimates.

"Bernanke's 'green shoots' are about to get weed whacked big time, when the BEA revises its wages and salaries estimates downward by as much as three-to-four percentage points for the six months prior to March 31, 2009," said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs. "The BEA will confirm what we have known for months, the economy is in much worse shape than preliminary estimates indicated."

TrimTabs uses daily income tax withholdings flowing into the U.S. Treasury to estimate changes in wages and salaries. According to this data, wages and salaries fell 1.4 percentage points year-over-year in Q4 2008 and plunged 5.3 percentage points y-o-y in Q1 2009. In contrast, the BEA, in its initial estimates, used income data from the QCEW report for Q3 2008; it then reported that wages and salaries grew 1.0 percentage point y-o-y in Q4 2008 and declined by only 1.0 percentage point y-o-y in Q1 2009.

"By relying on Q3 2008 income data, the BEA missed the huge turning point in the economy in Q4 2008 as a result of the Lehman Bros. collapse," said Biderman. "The downward surprise on Monday resulting from the BEA revisions is likely to hit the equities market hard," he added.

Worse still, the income picture darkened in May. TrimTabs real-time data indicates that net take-home pay, which is defined as after-tax wages and salaries plus income tax refunds plus government tax credits and tax rebates, is down a staggering 16.3 percentage points y-o-y so far in May, compared to a decline of 4.3 percentage points y-o-y in the period of February through April 2009.

"Real-time data leaves little doubt the economy continues to contract at a rapid clip," said Biderman. "Widespread expectations that the economy will recover in late 2009 are going to be dashed."


# # #

TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.


Contact Information:

Richard Stern
Media Relations
Stern & Company
+1 212-888-0044
richstern@sternco.com

Charles Biderman
TrimTabs Investment Research
+1 707-527-1501
charles.biderman@trimtabs.com





FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE


TrimTabs Investment Research Estimates U.S. Economy Shed 745,000 Jobs in April

'At This Job Loss Level, We Could Top 10% Unemployment Rate by This Summer,' Says CEO Charles Biderman


Sausalito, CA - May 6, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research estimated today that the U.S. economy shed 745,000 jobs in April as wages and salaries plunged an adjusted 5.7% year-over-year. TrimTabs estimated that the economy shed a record 5 million jobs in the past 12 months.

"If job losses continue at the present rate, the unemployment rate could top 10% by summer," said TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman.

In a research note, TrimTabs reported that income tax refunds are up 16.5% year-over-year this year, providing a short-term boost to consumption. Unfortunately for the economy, however, the support from refunds is winding down.
Moreover, TrimTabs explained that President Obama's "Making Work Pay" tax credit is too small to help the economy over the longer term.

"The Obama tax credit will distribute $20 billion to consumers from May through July," said Biderman. "This amount is less than one-quarter of the $90 billion the Bush tax credit pumped into consumers' pocketbooks in the same period last year."

Finally, TrimTabs reported that real-time income tax data indicates that the personal savings rate was 1.6% in March, well below the 4.2% estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.


# # #


TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.

Contact Information:

Richard Stern
Media Relations
Stern & Company
+1 212-888-0044
richstern@sternco.com

Charles Biderman
TrimTabs Investment Research
+1 707-527-1501
charles.biderman@trimtabs.com



TrimTabs and BarclayHedge Estimate Hedge Funds Outflows At Record $148.4 Billion in December
Hedge Fund Assets Dropped By Almost 50% Year-Over-Year to $998.4 Billion


Sausalito, Ca., Jan. 14, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research and BarclayHedge reported today that the hedge fund industry posted an estimated outflow of a record $148.4 billion in December, 2008, easily surpassing the previous record outflow of an estimated $54.2 billion in October, 2008. Total outflows from September through year end now total an estimated $269.3 billion.

TrimTabs and BarclayHedge said hedge fund assets fell to $998.4 billion in December, 2008 as a result of redemptions and poor performance since December, 2007 when they stood at $1.92 trillion. It also was the first time industry assets fell below $1 trillion since July, 2004 when they were $976.7 billion.

"The hedge fund industry is clearly under duress," said Conrad Gann, TrimTabs president and COO. "Approximately two thirds of industry revenue comes from performance fees and we estimate that 81% of hedge funds were under water last year. So as the industry looks forward, managers have half the assets to work with and those remaining assets need to fully recover prior losses before they can earn performance fees."

Sol Waksman, chief executive officer of BarclayHedge said, "With a number of funds putting up redemption "gates" we expect the redemption pressure to continue in the first quarter of 2009."


###


Contact Information:

Alison Simard
Media Relations
Stern & Company
+1 323-650-7117
arsimard@sternco.com

Conrad Gann
Chief Operating Officer
TrimTabs Investment Research
+1 415 331-4400
conrad.gann@trimtabs.com



FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE


TrimTabs Says U.S. Economy in Worst Shape since Great Depression
Investors Warned in Year-End Report to Brace for Another Grim Year


Sausalito, CA - January 13, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research said today in a year-end report that the U.S. economy is in its worst shape since the Great Depression and there are no signs of a bottom.

"None of our key indicators are showing any improvement heading into 2009," said TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman. "We expect this year to be another grim one for equities because the U.S. economy continues to deteriorate, companies are hardly buying any shares, and individuals are likely to continue selling assets to pay bills."

In a year-end report to its clients, which include some of the largest money managers in the world, TrimTabs laid out the grim details of the economy's performance in 2008:

Daily income tax withholdings deposited at the U.S. Treasury-one of the most reliable indicators TrimTabs tracks-rose a mere 1.2% in 2008, below the rate of inflation. Withholdings fell 2.0% in Q4 2008 relative to Q4 2007.

The economy lost 2.5 million jobs in 2008 based on withholdings. Job losses accelerated as the year progressed and totaled 1.3 million in Q4 2008.

The TrimTabs Consumer Spendables Indicator-which measures the money consumers generate from after-tax wages, after-tax income from non-wage sources, and home equity extraction-fell 2.8% in Q2 2008 relative to Q2 2007 and is projected to fall 7.5% in Q4 2008 relative to Q4 2007.

The TrimTabs Online Job Postings Index tumbled 31.4% in 2008. This indicator accelerated downward late in the year, falling 10.8% in November and 12.7% in December.

"Almost all the key indicators we track deteriorated sharply late last year," said Biderman. "The impact of the financial crisis is only beginning to spill over into the broader economy."

TrimTabs also explained how companies turned less bullish on equities and investors unloaded shares at a record pace in 2008:

Corporate insiders knew the global economy was in big trouble last year. In the U.S., cash takeovers of public companies and announced share repurchases plummeted 52% in 2008. In Europe, stock buybacks tumbled 70% to 80% in Q4 2008 relative to Q4 2007.

Equity mutual funds based in the U.S. posted a record outflow of $225 billion in 2008, including record outflows of $152 billion from U.S. equity funds and $73 billion from global equity funds.

The hedge fund industry shrank by more than one-third in 2008 as a result of record trading losses and redemptions. Hedge funds posted an enormous outflow of $67 billion from July 2008 through November 2008.

Inflows into exchange-traded funds, money market funds, certificates of deposit, and bank deposits did not offset outflows from mutual funds and hedge funds in Q4 2008, implying that investors were selling to pay living expenses.


# # #


TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.

Contact Information:

Alison Simard
Media Relations
Stern & Company
+1 323-650-7117
arsimard@sternco.com

Charles Biderman
TrimTabs Investment Research
+1 707-527-1501
charles.biderman@trimtabs.com



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