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TrimTabs Investment Research Launches Weekly Asia Flow Report Tracking Supply of Investment Cash.
Foreigners Still Purchasing Asian Equities, While In-Country Investors Mostly Sellers.
Sausalito,
CA - December 19, 2009 - TrimTabs is pleased to introduce the Weekly Asia Flow Report, which measures money flows into Japanese, Korean, mainland China and Indian stocks by both Asian and non-Asian investors.
"This new report offers investors a range of Asian equity flow data that is not available in one place anywhere else." said Vincent Deluard, Global Equity Strategist at TrimTabs. "It is particularly important to measure demand for stocks in emerging markets because changes in sentiment have historically caused large price swings."
The Weekly Asia Flow Report tracks 17 sentiment and flow variables, ranging from trading account openings in China to margin debt levels in Japan and short interest on American Depositary Receipts tracking Asian shares. Several of these variables, such as the flows of Asia-oriented mutual funds and flows into emerging markets hedge funds, are proprietary datasets.
"Our unique data and analysis will help investors identify market tops, when flows tend to be unusually strong, and market bottoms, when sentiment tends to be despondent," said Deluard.
Recent flow and sentiment data suggests Dubai's latest debt problems have had almost no effect on flows into Asian equities from outside Asia. Foreigners added to their stock positions in India, Japan, and Korea in the past two weeks. Also, flows into Asia-oriented mutual funds, ETFs, and hedge funds remained modestly positive.
While foreigners are extremely bullish on Asian equities, almost all in-country investors have been taking profits for the past three months. The only exception is in China, where the booming IPO market is encouraging wild speculation by retail investors.
To learn more about the Weekly Asia Flow Report or to discuss the latest trends in Asia-oriented flows, please contact Vincent Deluard at vincent.delurd@trimtabs.com or +1 415-331-4400.
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TrimTabs
Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed
daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and
exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax
collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional
investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit
www.TrimTabs.com.
Contact Information:
Alison
Simard Media Relations Stern & Company +1 212-888-0044 arsimard@sternco.com
Charles
Biderman TrimTabs Investment Research +1 707-527-1501 charles.biderman@trimtabs.com
FOR
IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
TrimTabs
Estimates U.S. Lost 472,000 Jobs in June, 24% More Than 380,000 in May Wages
& Salaries Dropped 5.8% Y-o-Y in June, Steeper Than May's 4.8% Y-o-Y Decline
Sausalito,
CA - July 1, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that 472,000 jobs were
lost in June, 24% more than the 380,000 jobs shed in May. TrimTabs also reports
that wages and salaries are dropping much more rapidly than the Bureau of Economic
Analysis is indicating.
"June's job losses are likely to push the
unemployment rate uncomfortably close to 10%," said Charles Biderman, Chief
Executive Officer of TrimTabs. "Job losses slowed temporarily in May as consumers
benefitted from income tax refunds, President Obama's tax credit, low interest
rates, and low energy costs. With the exception of the tax credit, all of those
factors have disappeared or reversed." TrimTabs' employment estimates
are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all
salaried U.S. employees. Historically, TrimTabs' employment estimates have been
more accurate than those of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
As job losses
are worsening, declines in wages and salaries are accelerating. According to TrimTabs'
tax data, wages and salaries fell 5.8% year-over-year in June, even steeper than
the decline of 4.8% year-over-year in May.
"Last week's report from
the Bureau of Economic Analysis that wages and salaries fell just 1.1% year-over-year
in May is ridiculous," said Biderman. "The BEA is using unemployment
insurance reports from the fourth quarter to estimate wage and salary growth five
months later."
TrimTabs explained that by overestimating wages and
salaries, the BEA is grossly overstating the savings rate. While the BEA reported
that the savings rate jumped to a 15-year high of 6.9% in May, TrimTabs' real-time
data shows the savings rate was only 2.8%. Excluding one-time factors, the savings
rate was a miniscule 0.9%, added Biderman.
"We asked BEA economists
how they reconcile the huge declines in real-time tax deposits with their report
of a modest decline in wages and salaries, and they could not answer our question,"
said Biderman. "The BEA is ignoring real-time data that shows the economy
is in much worse shape than it is reporting."
#
# #
TrimTabs
Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed
daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and
exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax
collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional
investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit
www.TrimTabs.com.
Contact Information:
Alison
Simard Media Relations Stern & Company +1 212-888-0044 arsimard@sternco.com
Charles
Biderman TrimTabs Investment Research +1 707-527-1501 charles.biderman@trimtabs.com
TrimTabs
Estimates U.S. Lost 579,000 Jobs in May Large Job Losses Weed Whacking Bernanke's
`Green Shoots'
Sausalito,
CA - June 3, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy
lost 579,000 jobs in May, bringing total job losses so far this year to a "worrisome"
3.3 million. What's more, TrimTabs expects job losses to average more than 500,000
to 600,000 in the next few months, as employers shed jobs in response to continued
poor business conditions.
"These huge job losses seem to be weed whacking
the green shoots of an economic revival that Fed Chairman Bernanke has been saying
are already evident." said TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman. "It would
be great if that were the case, but we're just not seeing it in the data."
TrimTabs'
jobs estimates are based upon analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S.
Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. Historically, TrimTabs' payroll job
estimates have been more accurate than the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) survey
results. The BLS is set to release May payroll numbers on Friday, June 5.
"The
BLS consistently underestimates job losses during a recession, creating a false
sense of confidence that conditions are improving when, in fact, economic conditions
are getting worse," Biderman said.
In fact, said Biderman, "Withheld
taxes of all U.S. workers fell 4.9% year-over-year in May, down from 4.7% year-over-year
in April. Weekly unemployment claims have been above 600,000 for four consecutive
months and continuing claims hit a record 6.8 million, the highest level on record." TrimTabs
estimates that the recession, which officially began in December 2007, has cost
the economy 5.8 million jobs.
"What is most worrisome is that job
losses are likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future," Biderman
said. "Until the employment market nears some sort of bottom, the U.S. economy
is unlikely to recover."
#
# #
TrimTabs
Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed
daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and
exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax
collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional
investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit
www.TrimTabs.com.
Contact Information:
Alison
Simard Media Relations Stern & Company +1 323-650-7117 arsimard@sternco.com
Charles
Biderman TrimTabs Investment Research +1 707-527-1501 charles.biderman@trimtabs.com
FOR
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
BEA
Will Likely Revise Q1 2009 Wages and Salaries Downward by Three-to-Four Percentage
Points on Monday Worse Still, So Far in the Month of May, Net Take-Home Pay
Is Plummeting A Staggering 16.3% Percentage Points Y-o-Y
Sausalito,
CA - May 29, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research today reports that on Monday,
June 1, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will likely revise its estimates
of wages and salaries and the personal savings rate substantially downward for
the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 when it incorporates actual
wage and salary data from the state-collected Q4 2008 Quarterly Census of Employment
and Wages (QCEW). The QCEW data will show that wages and salaries were much lower
in Q4 2008 and Q1 2009 than the preliminary BEA estimates. "Bernanke's
'green shoots' are about to get weed whacked big time, when the BEA revises its
wages and salaries estimates downward by as much as three-to-four percentage points
for the six months prior to March 31, 2009," said Charles Biderman, CEO of
TrimTabs. "The BEA will confirm what we have known for months, the economy
is in much worse shape than preliminary estimates indicated." TrimTabs
uses daily income tax withholdings flowing into the U.S. Treasury to estimate
changes in wages and salaries. According to this data, wages and salaries fell
1.4 percentage points year-over-year in Q4 2008 and plunged 5.3 percentage points
y-o-y in Q1 2009. In contrast, the BEA, in its initial estimates, used income
data from the QCEW report for Q3 2008; it then reported that wages and salaries
grew 1.0 percentage point y-o-y in Q4 2008 and declined by only 1.0 percentage
point y-o-y in Q1 2009. "By relying
on Q3 2008 income data, the BEA missed the huge turning point in the economy in
Q4 2008 as a result of the Lehman Bros. collapse," said Biderman. "The
downward surprise on Monday resulting from the BEA revisions is likely to hit
the equities market hard," he added. Worse
still, the income picture darkened in May. TrimTabs real-time data indicates that
net take-home pay, which is defined as after-tax wages and salaries plus income
tax refunds plus government tax credits and tax rebates, is down a staggering
16.3 percentage points y-o-y so far in May, compared to a decline of 4.3 percentage
points y-o-y in the period of February through April 2009. "Real-time
data leaves little doubt the economy continues to contract at a rapid clip,"
said Biderman. "Widespread expectations that the economy will recover in
late 2009 are going to be dashed." #
# #
TrimTabs Investment Research
is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage
of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded
fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections.
Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with
trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.
Contact Information:
Richard
Stern Media Relations Stern & Company +1 212-888-0044 richstern@sternco.com Charles
Biderman TrimTabs Investment Research +1 707-527-1501 charles.biderman@trimtabs.com
FOR
IMMEDIATE RELEASE TrimTabs
Investment Research Estimates U.S. Economy Shed 745,000 Jobs in April
'At This Job Loss Level, We Could Top 10% Unemployment Rate by This Summer,' Says
CEO Charles Biderman
Sausalito,
CA - May 6, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research estimated today that the U.S.
economy shed 745,000 jobs in April as wages and salaries plunged an adjusted 5.7%
year-over-year. TrimTabs estimated that the economy shed a record 5 million jobs
in the past 12 months.
"If job losses continue at the present rate,
the unemployment rate could top 10% by summer," said TrimTabs CEO Charles
Biderman.
In a research note, TrimTabs reported that income tax refunds
are up 16.5% year-over-year this year, providing a short-term boost to consumption.
Unfortunately for the economy, however, the support from refunds is winding down. Moreover,
TrimTabs explained that President Obama's "Making Work Pay" tax credit
is too small to help the economy over the longer term.
"The Obama
tax credit will distribute $20 billion to consumers from May through July,"
said Biderman. "This amount is less than one-quarter of the $90 billion the
Bush tax credit pumped into consumers' pocketbooks in the same period last year."
Finally,
TrimTabs reported that real-time income tax data indicates that the personal savings
rate was 1.6% in March, well below the 4.2% estimated by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis.
# # #
TrimTabs
Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed
daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and
exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax
collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional
investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit
www.TrimTabs.com.
Contact
Information:
Richard Stern Media Relations Stern & Company +1
212-888-0044 richstern@sternco.com
Charles
Biderman TrimTabs Investment Research +1 707-527-1501 charles.biderman@trimtabs.com
TrimTabs
and BarclayHedge Estimate Hedge Funds Outflows At Record $148.4 Billion in December Hedge
Fund Assets Dropped By Almost 50% Year-Over-Year to $998.4 Billion
Sausalito,
Ca., Jan. 14, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research and BarclayHedge reported today
that the hedge fund industry posted an estimated outflow of a record $148.4 billion
in December, 2008, easily surpassing the previous record outflow of an estimated
$54.2 billion in October, 2008. Total outflows from September through year end
now total an estimated $269.3 billion.
TrimTabs and BarclayHedge said
hedge fund assets fell to $998.4 billion in December, 2008 as a result of redemptions
and poor performance since December, 2007 when they stood at $1.92 trillion. It
also was the first time industry assets fell below $1 trillion since July, 2004
when they were $976.7 billion.
"The hedge fund industry is clearly
under duress," said Conrad Gann, TrimTabs president and COO. "Approximately
two thirds of industry revenue comes from performance fees and we estimate that
81% of hedge funds were under water last year. So as the industry looks forward,
managers have half the assets to work with and those remaining assets need to
fully recover prior losses before they can earn performance fees."
Sol
Waksman, chief executive officer of BarclayHedge said, "With a number of
funds putting up redemption "gates" we expect the redemption pressure
to continue in the first quarter of 2009."
###
Contact
Information:
Alison Simard Media Relations Stern & Company +1
323-650-7117 arsimard@sternco.com
Conrad
Gann Chief Operating Officer TrimTabs Investment Research +1 415 331-4400 conrad.gann@trimtabs.com
FOR
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
TrimTabs
Says U.S. Economy in Worst Shape since Great Depression Investors Warned in
Year-End Report to Brace for Another Grim Year
Sausalito,
CA - January 13, 2009 - TrimTabs Investment Research said today in a year-end
report that the U.S. economy is in its worst shape since the Great Depression
and there are no signs of a bottom.
"None of our key indicators are
showing any improvement heading into 2009," said TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman.
"We expect this year to be another grim one for equities because the U.S.
economy continues to deteriorate, companies are hardly buying any shares, and
individuals are likely to continue selling assets to pay bills."
In
a year-end report to its clients, which include some of the largest money managers
in the world, TrimTabs laid out the grim details of the economy's performance
in 2008:
Daily income tax withholdings deposited at the U.S. Treasury-one
of the most reliable indicators TrimTabs tracks-rose a mere 1.2% in 2008, below
the rate of inflation. Withholdings fell 2.0% in Q4 2008 relative to Q4 2007.
The economy lost 2.5 million jobs in 2008 based on withholdings. Job losses accelerated
as the year progressed and totaled 1.3 million in Q4 2008.
The TrimTabs
Consumer Spendables Indicator-which measures the money consumers generate from
after-tax wages, after-tax income from non-wage sources, and home equity extraction-fell
2.8% in Q2 2008 relative to Q2 2007 and is projected to fall 7.5% in Q4 2008 relative
to Q4 2007.
The TrimTabs Online Job Postings Index tumbled 31.4% in 2008.
This indicator accelerated downward late in the year, falling 10.8% in November
and 12.7% in December.
"Almost all the key indicators we track deteriorated
sharply late last year," said Biderman. "The impact of the financial
crisis is only beginning to spill over into the broader economy."
TrimTabs
also explained how companies turned less bullish on equities and investors unloaded
shares at a record pace in 2008:
Corporate insiders knew the global economy
was in big trouble last year. In the U.S., cash takeovers of public companies
and announced share repurchases plummeted 52% in 2008. In Europe, stock buybacks
tumbled 70% to 80% in Q4 2008 relative to Q4 2007.
Equity mutual funds
based in the U.S. posted a record outflow of $225 billion in 2008, including record
outflows of $152 billion from U.S. equity funds and $73 billion from global equity
funds.
The hedge fund industry shrank by more than one-third in 2008 as
a result of record trading losses and redemptions. Hedge funds posted an enormous
outflow of $67 billion from July 2008 through November 2008.
Inflows into
exchange-traded funds, money market funds, certificates of deposit, and bank deposits
did not offset outflows from mutual funds and hedge funds in Q4 2008, implying
that investors were selling to pay living expenses.
#
# #
TrimTabs Investment Research
is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage
of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded
fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections.
Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with
trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.
Contact
Information: Alison Simard Media Relations Stern & Company +1
323-650-7117 arsimard@sternco.com
Charles
Biderman TrimTabs Investment Research +1 707-527-1501 charles.biderman@trimtabs.com |